BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
44-57 | Road
4
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
51-50 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Colton Cowser
#17 | Center Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Matt Festa
#52 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colton Cowser | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Matt Festa | None-None | 5.02 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
5.02
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
43%
GUARDIANS
57%
ORIOLES
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
47%
Under 0
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
BAL By 1-2 runs
17.9%
BAL By 3-4 runs
12.7%
CLE By 1-2 runs
18.9%
CLE By 3-4 runs
14.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
4.3
BALTIMORE
Cleveland
4.59
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Guardians
Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Guardians (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
D
Sim
Guardians (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 9, 2026
CLE @ BAL
5 - 9
Sep 8, 2026
CLE @ BAL
9 - 5
Sep 7, 2026
CLE @ BAL
4 - 6
Apr 19, 2026
BAL @ CLE
4 - 8
Apr 18, 2026
BAL @ CLE
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Cleveland
CLE
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.711
▲
OPS
.696
199
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+22.3% more
Cleveland: 7.9
vs
Baltimore: 6.5
Total Bases (L5)
+11.4% more
Cleveland: 12.4
vs
Baltimore: 11.1
Hits (L5)
+11.0% more
Cleveland: 7.3
vs
Baltimore: 6.6
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.5%
Cleveland: 23.9%
vs
Baltimore: 23.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
4.3
4
CLE Score
4.6
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.3 / 6.6
7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.1
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 6.5
5.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
12.4 / 11.1
13.0 / 13.0
Walks
2.7 / 4.9
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
BAL
CLE
BAL
ML
54%
87-74
53%
83-73
49%
80-82
57%
90-69
ATS
58%
93-68
61%
95-60-1
59%
95-67
57%
90-68-1
TTL
55%
88-71-2
54%
81-70-5
43%
69-90-2
51%
78-75-6
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