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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

49-53  |  Road

8
FINAL
Wed, Jul 23 • 2:20 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

60-41  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Lucas Erceg
STARTING PITCHER

Lucas Erceg

#60 | Relief Pitcher
@
Colin Rea
STARTING PITCHER

Colin Rea

#53 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Lucas Erceg None-None 2.43 -- 1.0 --
Colin Rea None-None 4.06 -- 5.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
2.43 Ldr ERA 4.06
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
39%
📊
CUBS
61%
ROYALS --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Chicago)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

45.2%

Cubs Cover

54.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

KC By 1-2 runs

17.5%

KC By 3-4 runs

12.2%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.1%

CHC By 3-4 runs

14.9%

AI Model Projected Score
4.55
KANSAS CITY
5.03
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
3
KANSAS CITY
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Sim Cubs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
D
Sim Cubs (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.6
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 CHC @ KC 10 - 2
Aug 8, 2026 CHC @ KC 3 - 6
Aug 7, 2026 CHC @ KC 6 - 4
Jul 23, 2025 KC @ CHC 8 - 4
Jul 22, 2025 KC @ CHC 0 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.26 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.316 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.718 ▲
OPS
.374
170 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +11.6% more
Chicago: 7.6 vs Kansas City: 6.8
Home Runs (Season) +100.0% more
Kansas City: 170.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +88.3% more
Kansas City: 4.3 vs Chicago: 0.5
Errors (L5) +75.6% more
Kansas City: 1.3 vs Chicago: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 4.6 8
CHC Score 5.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 1.3 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.8 / 8.6 7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.4 2.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 7.6 / 6.8 6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 13.6 / 14.4 14.0 / 21.0
Walks 1.9 / 3.1 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
KC
CHC
KC
ML
58% 93-68
55% 89-72
51% 82-79
56% 90-70
ATS
61% 97-63-1
57% 91-70
47% 75-85-1
58% 93-67
TTL
52% 81-74-6
58% 90-64-7
46% 72-83-6
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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