BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
44-55 | Road
3
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
49-50 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Yennier Cano
#78 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Smith
#36 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yennier Cano | None-None | 4.67 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Cade Smith | None-None | 3.12 | -- | 1.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.67
ERA
Ldr 3.12
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
45%
GUARDIANS
55%
ORIOLES
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
72%
Under 0
28%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.2%
BAL By 3-4 runs
15.1%
CLE By 1-2 runs
17.4%
CLE By 3-4 runs
12.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
4.48
BALTIMORE
Cleveland
3.95
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Orioles
Loss
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Orioles (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
D
Sim
Guardians (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.4
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 9, 2026
CLE @ BAL
5 - 9
Sep 8, 2026
CLE @ BAL
9 - 5
Sep 7, 2026
CLE @ BAL
4 - 6
Apr 19, 2026
BAL @ CLE
4 - 8
Apr 18, 2026
BAL @ CLE
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Cleveland
CLE
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.711
▲
OPS
.696
199
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+84.9% more
Baltimore: 5.4
vs
Cleveland: 0.8
Errors (L5)
+71.1% more
Baltimore: 1.2
vs
Cleveland: 0.4
Home Runs (Season)
+18.6% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Cleveland: 162.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+6.1% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
4.5
3
CLE Score
4.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 1.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.9 / 7.5
7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 1.1
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 7.1
9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
17.9 / 12.6
11.0 / 10.0
Walks
0.8 / 5.4
6.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
BAL
CLE
BAL
ML
54%
87-74
53%
83-73
49%
80-82
57%
90-69
ATS
58%
93-68
61%
95-60-1
59%
95-67
57%
90-68-1
TTL
55%
88-71-2
54%
81-70-5
43%
69-90-2
51%
78-75-6
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