ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
42-60 | Road
2
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
51-50 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Hogan Harris
#36 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob deGrom
#48 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hogan Harris | None-None | 4.35 | -- | 1.1 | 1 |
| Jacob deGrom | None-None | 2.28 | -- | 6.0 | 9 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.35
ERA
Ldr 2.28
--
WHIP
--
1.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 9
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
41%
RANGERS
59%
ATHLETICS
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
75%
Under 0
25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
ATH By 1-2 runs
12.8%
ATH By 3-4 runs
7.2%
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.4%
TEX By 3-4 runs
18.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletics
4.34
ATHLETICS
Texas
6.59
TEXAS
Simulated Score
Athletics
3
ATHLETICS
Texas
6
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rangers
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rangers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rangers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.3
D
Sim
Rangers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.9
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
ATH @ TEX
9 - 2
Sep 1, 2026
ATH @ TEX
5 - 8
Aug 31, 2026
ATH @ TEX
1 - 8
Aug 16, 2026
TEX @ ATH
2 - 5
Aug 15, 2026
TEX @ ATH
5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics
ATH
vs
Texas
TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.317
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.719
▲
OPS
.713
194
▲
Home Runs
183
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+50.2% more
Texas: 4.0
vs
Athletics: 2.7
Total Bases (L5)
+25.8% more
Athletics: 15.6
vs
Texas: 11.6
Hits (L5)
+22.2% more
Athletics: 7.8
vs
Texas: 6.1
Home Runs (L5)
+16.3% more
Athletics: 1.4
vs
Texas: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATH Score
4.3
2
TEX Score
6.6
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.1 / 7.8
10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.4
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 8.3
13.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
11.6 / 15.6
20.0 / 11.0
Walks
4.0 / 2.7
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
TEX
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
TEX
Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
ATH
TEX
ATH
ML
53%
86-76
59%
95-67
57%
91-70
54%
87-74
ATS
57%
92-70
52%
84-78
61%
98-63
50%
81-80
TTL
53%
78-70-14
54%
84-73-5
55%
81-66-14
42%
66-90-5
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