KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
49-52 | Road
0
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
59-41 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
John Rave
#16 | Right Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Caleb Thielbar
#24 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Rave | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Caleb Thielbar | None-None | 2.15 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
2.15
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
40%
CUBS
60%
ROYALS
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
39%
Under 0
61%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around KC -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
KC By 1-2 runs
18.9%
KC By 3-4 runs
14.4%
CHC By 1-2 runs
17.9%
CHC By 3-4 runs
12.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
4.95
KANSAS CITY
Chicago
4.66
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Kansas City
3
KANSAS CITY
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Royals
Loss
40% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cubs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Royals (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
C
Sim
Cubs (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
CHC @ KC
10 - 2
Aug 8, 2026
CHC @ KC
3 - 6
Aug 7, 2026
CHC @ KC
6 - 4
Jul 23, 2025
KC @ CHC
8 - 4
Jul 22, 2025
KC @ CHC
0 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City
KC
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.26
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.316
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.718
▲
OPS
.374
170
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+100.0% more
Kansas City: 170.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+88.3% more
Kansas City: 4.3
vs
Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season)
+34.4%
Kansas City: 71.8%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Walks (L5)
+26.3% more
Kansas City: 3.1
vs
Chicago: 2.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
5.0
0
CHC Score
4.7
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.5
0.0 / 3.0
Hits
8.7 / 9.9
9.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 2.1
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.4 / 7.2
8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
15.4 / 18.6
10.0 / 6.0
Walks
2.3 / 3.1
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
KC
CHC
KC
ML
58%
93-68
55%
89-72
51%
82-79
56%
90-70
ATS
61%
97-63-1
57%
91-70
47%
75-85-1
58%
93-67
TTL
52%
81-74-6
58%
90-64-7
46%
72-83-6
54%
83-70-7
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