SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
54-45 | Road
2
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
46-52 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jeremiah Estrada
#56 | RP@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Phillips
#30 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Estrada | None-None | 2.80 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Tyler Phillips | None-None | 3.47 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.80 Ldr
ERA
3.47
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 2.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
58%
MARLINS
42%
PADRES
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
SD By 1-2 runs
19.0%
SD By 3-4 runs
14.7%
MIA By 1-2 runs
17.7%
MIA By 3-4 runs
12.4%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
4.61
SAN DIEGO
Miami
4.22
MIAMI
Simulated Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Padres
Win
58% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Padres (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
C
Sim
Marlins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
MIA @ SD
3 - 7
Sep 19, 2026
MIA @ SD
6 - 7
Sep 18, 2026
MIA @ SD
2 - 8
Jul 26, 2026
SD @ MIA
5 - 3
Jul 25, 2026
SD @ MIA
7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Miami
MIA
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.249
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.925
▲
OPS
.727
4
Home Runs
▲
168
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+26.5% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Miami: 4.4
OPS (Season)
+19.8%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Miami: 72.7%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+16.3%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Miami: 40.0%
Strikeouts (L5)
+15.8% more
San Diego: 7.1
vs
Miami: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
4.6
2
MIA Score
4.2
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.5 / 9.6
9.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.1
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.0 / 7.1
9.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
13.9 / 15.3
12.0 / 8.0
Walks
2.5 / 2.6
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
SD
MIA
SD
ML
48%
78-84
51%
85-83
55%
88-72
51%
85-82
ATS
56%
91-71
54%
91-77
54%
86-74
55%
92-75
TTL
56%
88-69-5
51%
82-80-6
53%
82-73-5
54%
86-74-6
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