ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
42-59 | Road
2
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
50-50 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Elvis Alvarado
#37 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cole Winn
#60 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Alvarado | None-None | 4.20 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Cole Winn | None-None | 1.50 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.20
ERA
Ldr 1.50
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
42%
RANGERS
58%
ATHLETICS
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
74%
Under 0
26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
ATH By 1-2 runs
15.6%
ATH By 3-4 runs
9.8%
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TEX By 3-4 runs
17.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletics
4.86
ATHLETICS
Texas
6.15
TEXAS
Simulated Score
Athletics
3
ATHLETICS
Texas
6
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rangers
Win
58% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rangers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rangers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.3
D
Sim
Rangers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
ATH @ TEX
9 - 2
Sep 1, 2026
ATH @ TEX
5 - 8
Aug 31, 2026
ATH @ TEX
1 - 8
Aug 16, 2026
TEX @ ATH
2 - 5
Aug 15, 2026
TEX @ ATH
5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics
ATH
vs
Texas
TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.317
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.719
▲
OPS
.713
194
▲
Home Runs
183
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+40.7% more
Texas: 3.6
vs
Athletics: 2.5
Home Runs (L5)
+52.2% more
Athletics: 1.6
vs
Texas: 0.8
Total Bases (L5)
+46.5% more
Athletics: 18.4
vs
Texas: 9.8
Hits (L5)
+39.0% more
Athletics: 9.3
vs
Texas: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATH Score
4.9
2
TEX Score
6.2
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.7 / 9.3
7.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.6
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.1 / 8.0
9.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
9.8 / 18.4
15.0 / 10.0
Walks
3.6 / 2.5
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
TEX
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
TEX
Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
ATH
TEX
ATH
ML
53%
86-76
59%
95-67
57%
91-70
54%
87-74
ATS
57%
92-70
52%
84-78
61%
98-63
50%
81-80
TTL
53%
78-70-14
54%
84-73-5
55%
81-66-14
42%
66-90-5
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