Home / MLB Projections MLB / Red Sox @ Cubs BOS @ CHC

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

53-47  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sun, Jul 20 • 2:20 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

59-39  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Garrett Whitlock
STARTING PITCHER

Garrett Whitlock

#22 | Relief Pitcher
@
Ethan Roberts
STARTING PITCHER

Ethan Roberts

#39 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Garrett Whitlock None-None 3.30 -- 1.0 1
Ethan Roberts None-None 6.00 -- 0.2 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.30 Ldr ERA 6.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
43%
📊
CUBS
57%
RED SOX --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Chicago)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

45.6%

Cubs Cover

54.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

BOS By 1-2 runs

17.6%

BOS By 3-4 runs

12.3%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.1%

CHC By 3-4 runs

14.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5.93
BOSTON
6.37
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
4
BOSTON
6
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim Cubs (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 12.3
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 CHC @ BOS 6 - 2
Sep 25, 2026 CHC @ BOS 0 - 2
Jul 20, 2025 BOS @ CHC 6 - 1
Jul 19, 2025 BOS @ CHC 0 - 6
Jul 18, 2025 BOS @ CHC 1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Chicago CHC
2
Games Played
2
1.00 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .129
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .229
.250 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.409 ▲
OPS
.374
2 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +203.0% more
Chicago: 2.5 vs Boston: 0.5
Total Bases (L5) +74.4% more
Chicago: 17.7 vs Boston: 10.1
Hits (L5) +25.4% more
Chicago: 8.9 vs Boston: 7.1
Strikeouts (L5) +18.8% more
Chicago: 8.5 vs Boston: 7.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 5.9 6
CHC Score 6.4 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.9 / 7.1 8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 2.5 / 0.5 0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 8.5 / 7.1 9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 17.7 / 10.1 10.0 / 17.0
Walks 1.9 / 1.8 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
BOS
CHC
BOS
ML
58% 93-68
50% 80-80
51% 82-79
47% 76-87
ATS
61% 97-63-1
58% 93-67
47% 75-85-1
48% 79-84
TTL
52% 81-74-6
46% 72-83-5
46% 72-83-6
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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