DETROIT
TIGERSDET
59-40 | Road
2
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
50-49 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Holton
#87 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Latz
#67 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Holton | None-None | 3.60 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Jacob Latz | None-None | 2.89 | -- | 5.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.60
ERA
Ldr 2.89
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
59%
RANGERS
41%
TIGERS
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.5
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -3.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
DET By 1-2 runs
9.1%
DET By 3-4 runs
4.4%
TEX By 1-2 runs
17.4%
TEX By 3-4 runs
19.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
3.59
DETROIT
Texas
7.11
TEXAS
Simulated Score
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Texas
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rangers
Loss
41% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rangers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rangers (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.5
B
Sim
Rangers (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 5, 2026
DET @ TEX
6 - 3
Jul 4, 2026
DET @ TEX
3 - 0
Jul 2, 2026
DET @ TEX
4 - 10
May 3, 2026
TEX @ DET
1 - 7
May 2, 2026
TEX @ DET
1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Texas
TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲
.242
.320
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.720
▲
OPS
.713
181
Home Runs
▲
183
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+35.5% more
Texas: 11.8
vs
Detroit: 8.7
Home Runs (L5)
+29.0% more
Texas: 1.2
vs
Detroit: 0.9
Hits (L5)
+20.7% more
Texas: 6.5
vs
Detroit: 5.4
Errors (L5)
+49.0% more
Detroit: 0.6
vs
Texas: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
3.6
2
TEX Score
7.1
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.5 / 5.4
4.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 8.9
8.0 / 15.0
Total Bases
11.8 / 8.7
6.0 / 10.0
Walks
3.4 / 3.8
4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TEX
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
DET
TEX
DET
ML
53%
86-76
54%
86-73
57%
91-70
54%
87-73
ATS
57%
92-70
64%
101-58
61%
98-63
57%
91-69
TTL
53%
78-70-14
46%
69-81-9
55%
81-66-14
46%
69-81-10
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