Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Nationals SD @ WSH

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

53-44  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Jul 19 • 6:45 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

38-59  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Wandy Peralta
STARTING PITCHER

Wandy Peralta

#58 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jacob Young
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Young

#30 | Center Field
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Wandy Peralta None-None 3.45 -- 0.2 --
Jacob Young None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
3.45 ERA --
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
65%
📊
NATIONALS
35%
PADRES --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 43%
Under 0 57%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (San Diego)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

58.4%

Nationals Cover

41.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

SD By 1-2 runs

19.5%

SD By 3-4 runs

15.9%

WSH By 1-2 runs

16.7%

WSH By 3-4 runs

11.1%

AI Model Projected Score
4.17
SAN DIEGO
3.32
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
3
SAN DIEGO
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Padres Loss
65% Win Prob
C
Sim Nationals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Padres (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.9
D
Sim Nationals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.5
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 WSH @ SD 2 - 9
Sep 8, 2026 WSH @ SD 4 - 5
Sep 7, 2026 WSH @ SD 2 - 3
May 31, 2026 SD @ WSH 2 - 4
May 30, 2026 SD @ WSH 4 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Washington WSH
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
5.07
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.423
.925 ▲
OPS
.744
4
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +54.0% more
San Diego: 0.8 vs Washington: 0.3
Strikeouts (L5) +36.1% more
San Diego: 10.0 vs Washington: 6.4
OPS (Season) +18.1%
San Diego: 92.5% vs Washington: 74.4%
Runs per Game (Season) +15.5% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Washington: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 4.2 2
WSH Score 3.3 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.6 / 8.8 6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.4 / 10.0 7.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 11.7 / 13.1 11.0 / 8.0
Walks 3.5 / 2.8 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
WSH
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
SD
WSH
SD
ML
57% 92-69
51% 85-83
54% 87-74
51% 85-82
ATS
58% 93-68
54% 91-77
57% 91-70
55% 92-75
TTL
50% 77-78-6
51% 82-80-6
42% 65-90-6
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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