Home / MLB Projections MLB / Red Sox @ Cubs BOS @ CHC

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

53-45  |  Road

1
FINAL
Fri, Jul 18 • 2:20 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

57-39  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Greg Weissert
STARTING PITCHER

Greg Weissert

#57 | Relief Pitcher
@
Caleb Thielbar
STARTING PITCHER

Caleb Thielbar

#24 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Greg Weissert None-None 3.24 -- 0.1 --
Caleb Thielbar None-None 2.23 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
3.24 ERA Ldr 2.23
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
45%
📊
CUBS
55%
RED SOX --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Boston)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

59.2%

Cubs Cover

40.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.5%

BOS By 3-4 runs

16.1%

CHC By 1-2 runs

16.5%

CHC By 3-4 runs

10.8%

AI Model Projected Score
6.73
BOSTON
5.8
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
3
BOSTON
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Sox Loss
45% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Red Sox (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.9
B
Sim Cubs (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 12.5
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 CHC @ BOS 6 - 2
Sep 25, 2026 CHC @ BOS 0 - 2
Jul 20, 2025 BOS @ CHC 6 - 1
Jul 19, 2025 BOS @ CHC 0 - 6
Jul 18, 2025 BOS @ CHC 1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Chicago CHC
2
Games Played
2
1.00 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .129
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .229
.250 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.409 ▲
OPS
.374
2 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +62.0% more
Boston: 0.7 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +50.0% more
Boston: 1.0 vs Chicago: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5) +14.1% more
Boston: 8.8 vs Chicago: 7.6
Slugging Pct (Season) +10.5%
Boston: 25.0% vs Chicago: 14.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 6.7 1
CHC Score 5.8 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.7 / 7.9 6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.6 / 8.8 8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 14.8 / 13.6 11.0 / 8.0
Walks 1.6 / 1.2 4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
BOS
CHC
BOS
ML
58% 93-68
50% 80-80
51% 82-79
47% 76-87
ATS
61% 97-63-1
58% 93-67
47% 75-85-1
48% 79-84
TTL
52% 81-74-6
46% 72-83-5
46% 72-83-6
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 1 hour, 27 minutes ago
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
yardbarker 1 hour, 34 minutes ago
White Sox Eye ALDS Sweep Over Guardians in Game 3 Showdown
yahoo 1 day, 13 hours ago
Sean Burke's Relief Masterclass Puts White Sox on Brink of ALCS
yahoo 1 day, 19 hours ago
Red Sox Offseason: Roman Anthony Avoids Surgery, Power Bat Searc…
yahoo 2 days, 7 hours ago