Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Nationals SD @ WSH

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

52-44  |  Road

7
FINAL
Fri, Jul 18 • 6:45 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

38-58  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Wandy Peralta
STARTING PITCHER

Wandy Peralta

#58 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jacob Young
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Young

#30 | Center Field
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Wandy Peralta None-None 3.50 -- 1.1 --
Jacob Young None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
3.50 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.1 IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
64%
📊
NATIONALS
36%
PADRES --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 35%
Under 0 65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (San Diego)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

63.7%

Nationals Cover

36.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

SD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SD By 3-4 runs

17.2%

WSH By 1-2 runs

15.3%

WSH By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4.52
SAN DIEGO
3.12
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
3
SAN DIEGO
6
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Padres Win
64% Win Prob
C
Sim Nationals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Padres (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim Nationals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 WSH @ SD 2 - 9
Sep 8, 2026 WSH @ SD 4 - 5
Sep 7, 2026 WSH @ SD 2 - 3
May 31, 2026 SD @ WSH 2 - 4
May 30, 2026 SD @ WSH 4 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Washington WSH
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
5.07
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.423
.925 ▲
OPS
.744
4
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +65.0% more
San Diego: 1.2 vs Washington: 0.4
Strikeouts (L5) +22.5% more
San Diego: 8.5 vs Washington: 6.6
OPS (Season) +18.1%
San Diego: 92.5% vs Washington: 74.4%
Runs per Game (Season) +15.5% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Washington: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 4.5 7
WSH Score 3.1 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.9 / 7.8 9.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.0 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.6 / 8.5 6.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 11.6 / 11.6 12.0 / 16.0
Walks 3.3 / 3.6 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
83%MONEY17%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
WSH
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
SD
WSH
SD
ML
57% 92-69
51% 85-83
54% 87-74
51% 85-82
ATS
58% 93-68
54% 91-77
57% 91-70
55% 92-75
TTL
50% 77-78-6
51% 82-80-6
42% 65-90-6
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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