BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
43-52 | Road
1
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
50-47 | Home
11
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Grant Wolfram
#48 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kevin Kelly
#49 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Wolfram | None-None | 9.53 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
| Kevin Kelly | None-None | 3.97 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
9.53
ERA
Ldr 3.97
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
44%
RAYS
56%
ORIOLES
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
58%
Under 0
42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.3%
BAL By 3-4 runs
15.3%
TB By 1-2 runs
17.2%
TB By 3-4 runs
11.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
4.45
BALTIMORE
Tampa Bay
3.85
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Orioles
Loss
44% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Orioles (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.6
B
Sim
Rays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
TB @ BAL
3 - 1
Aug 22, 2026
TB @ BAL
2 - 3
Aug 21, 2026
TB @ BAL
3 - 5
Aug 17, 2026
BAL @ TB
6 - 7
Aug 16, 2026
BAL @ TB
10 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.711
OPS
▲
.728
199
▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+33.0% more
Baltimore: 0.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.4
Strikeouts (L5)
+26.5% more
Baltimore: 8.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 5.9
Home Runs (Season)
+15.1% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 169.0
Total Bases (L5)
+8.7% more
Baltimore: 10.6
vs
Tampa Bay: 9.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
4.5
1
TB Score
3.9
11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.4
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.4 / 6.9
13.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 0.7
4.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
5.9 / 8.0
8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
9.7 / 10.6
27.0 / 8.0
Walks
2.9 / 2.2
2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
BAL
TB
BAL
ML
58%
95-68
53%
83-73
58%
95-68
57%
90-69
ATS
60%
97-66
61%
95-60-1
55%
90-73
57%
90-68-1
TTL
47%
73-81-9
54%
81-70-5
51%
78-75-10
51%
78-75-6
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