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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

59-38  |  Road

0
FINAL
Fri, Jul 18 • 8:05 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

48-49  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Tyler Holton
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Holton

#87 | Relief Pitcher
@
Wyatt Langford
STARTING PITCHER

Wyatt Langford

#36 | Left Field
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler Holton None-None 3.67 -- 1.2 2
Wyatt Langford None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
3.67 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.2 IP (Innings Pitched) --
2 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
61%
📊
RANGERS
39%
TIGERS --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.3
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.3 points (Texas)
TigersDET (-3.5) 0 RangersTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

20.4%

Rangers Cover

79.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -3.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

DET By 1-2 runs

9.7%

DET By 3-4 runs

4.8%

TEX By 1-2 runs

17.9%

TEX By 3-4 runs

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3.85
DETROIT
7.16
TEXAS
Simulated Score
4
DETROIT
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rangers Win
39% Win Prob
D
Sim Rangers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rangers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.3
B
Sim Rangers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 5, 2026 DET @ TEX 6 - 3
Jul 4, 2026 DET @ TEX 3 - 0
Jul 2, 2026 DET @ TEX 4 - 10
May 3, 2026 TEX @ DET 1 - 7
May 2, 2026 TEX @ DET 1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲ .242
.320 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.720 ▲
OPS
.713
181
Home Runs
▲ 183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +54.2% more
Texas: 1.9 vs Detroit: 1.2
Total Bases (L5) +36.0% more
Texas: 17.7 vs Detroit: 13.0
Hits (L5) +22.3% more
Texas: 9.6 vs Detroit: 7.8
Errors (L5) +60.0% more
Detroit: 0.8 vs Texas: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 3.9 0
TEX Score 7.2 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.6 / 7.8 4.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.9 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.4 / 8.8 9.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 17.7 / 13.0 7.0 / 4.0
Walks 2.5 / 4.6 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
DET
TEX
DET
ML
53% 86-76
54% 86-73
57% 91-70
54% 87-73
ATS
57% 92-70
64% 101-58
61% 98-63
57% 91-69
TTL
53% 78-70-14
46% 69-81-9
55% 81-66-14
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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