TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
50-46 | Road
1
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
52-45 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ian Seymour
#61 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Aroldis Chapman
#44 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Seymour | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
| Aroldis Chapman | None-None | 1.18 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
1.18
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
48%
RED SOX
52%
RAYS
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
TB By 1-2 runs
13.2%
TB By 3-4 runs
7.5%
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.5%
BOS By 3-4 runs
18.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
4.49
TAMPA BAY
Boston
6.63
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Boston
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox
Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.1
D
Sim
Red Sox (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.1
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
BOS @ TB
1 - 5
Sep 19, 2026
BOS @ TB
1 - 2
Sep 18, 2026
BOS @ TB
4 - 2
Jul 19, 2026
TB @ BOS
1 - 6
Jul 18, 2026
TB @ BOS
6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.728
▲
OPS
.409
169
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+45.0% more
Boston: 1.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+38.0% more
Boston: 13.8
vs
Tampa Bay: 10.0
Errors (L5)
+36.0% more
Boston: 0.5
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+19.9% more
Boston: 8.2
vs
Tampa Bay: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
4.5
1
BOS Score
6.6
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.1
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.8 / 7.0
8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 6.8
10.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
13.8 / 10.0
13.0 / 9.0
Walks
1.8 / 3.9
0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
TB
BOS
TB
ML
50%
80-80
58%
95-68
47%
76-87
58%
95-68
ATS
58%
93-67
60%
97-66
48%
79-84
55%
90-73
TTL
46%
72-83-5
47%
73-81-9
47%
74-83-6
51%
78-75-10
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
Yankees' Season Ends in Sweep as Boone Faces Fan Fury Over 'Brok…