NEW YORK
METSNYM
55-41 | Road
2
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
46-50 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Manaea
#59 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Lucas Erceg
#60 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Manaea | None-None | 2.70 | -- | 3.1 | 7 |
| Lucas Erceg | None-None | 2.15 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.70
ERA
Ldr 2.15
--
WHIP
--
3.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
7 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
METS
59%
ROYALS
41%
METS
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.0%
NYM By 3-4 runs
14.6%
KC By 1-2 runs
17.7%
KC By 3-4 runs
12.5%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
3.85
NEW YORK
Kansas City
3.48
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Kansas City
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mets
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mets (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
C
Sim
Royals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 9, 2026
KC @ NYM
3 - 7
Jul 8, 2026
KC @ NYM
2 - 6
Jul 7, 2026
KC @ NYM
16 - 12
Jul 13, 2025
NYM @ KC
2 - 3
Jul 12, 2025
NYM @ KC
3 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Kansas City
KC
162
Games Played
162
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.705
OPS
▲
.718
204
▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+17.0% more
New York: 0.4
vs
Kansas City: 0.2
Home Runs (Season)
+16.7% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Kansas City: 170.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+51.6% more
Kansas City: 10.0
vs
New York: 6.6
Walks (L5)
+37.7% more
Kansas City: 3.3
vs
New York: 2.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
3.9
2
KC Score
3.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.7 / 7.4
10.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.3
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.0 / 6.6
9.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
14.5 / 13.3
12.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.3 / 2.4
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
Advantage
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
KC
Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
NYM
KC
NYM
ML
55%
89-72
50%
79-80
56%
90-70
48%
76-83
ATS
57%
91-70
58%
93-66
58%
93-67
49%
78-81
TTL
58%
90-64-7
55%
80-66-13
54%
83-70-7
51%
74-72-13
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