Home / MLB Projections MLB / Blue Jays @ Athletics TOR @ ATH

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

55-40  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Jul 13 • 4:05 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

40-57  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Brendon Little
STARTING PITCHER

Brendon Little

#54 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jeffrey Springs
STARTING PITCHER

Jeffrey Springs

#59 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brendon Little None-None 2.03 -- 1.0 2
Jeffrey Springs None-None 3.93 -- 6.2 5
None-None W-L None-None
2.03 Ldr ERA 3.93
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.2
2 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
66%
📊
ATHLETICS
34%
BLUE JAYS --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Toronto)
Blue JaysTOR (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Jays Cover

52.1%

Athletics Cover

47.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

TOR By 1-2 runs

18.8%

TOR By 3-4 runs

14.2%

ATH By 1-2 runs

18.1%

ATH By 3-4 runs

13.0%

AI Model Projected Score
4.82
TORONTO
4.61
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
3
TORONTO
6
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Blue Jays Loss
66% Win Prob
C
Sim Athletics Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Blue Jays (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
C
Sim Athletics (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.4
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 TOR @ ATH 0 - 2
Sep 8, 2026 TOR @ ATH 4 - 2
Sep 7, 2026 TOR @ ATH 5 - 6
Mar 29, 2026 ATH @ TOR 2 - 5
Mar 28, 2026 ATH @ TOR 7 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto TOR
vs
Athletics ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.692
OPS
▲ .719
152
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +62.6% more
Toronto: 1.2 vs Athletics: 0.4
Batting Avg (Season) +0.2%
Toronto: 24.7% vs Athletics: 24.5%
Home Runs (L5) +99.0% more
Athletics: 1.8 vs Toronto: 0.8
Walks (L5) +43.7% more
Athletics: 3.6 vs Toronto: 2.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 4.8 3
ATH Score 4.6 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 1.2 0.0 / 3.0
Hits 8.6 / 8.9 8.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 0.8 3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 10.5 / 9.1 9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 15.3 / 14.4 18.0 / 10.0
Walks 3.6 / 2.5 0.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR Advantage
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
ATH Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
TOR
ATH
TOR
ML
59% 95-67
46% 74-87
54% 87-74
50% 80-80
ATS
52% 84-78
56% 90-71
50% 81-80
49% 79-81
TTL
54% 84-73-5
51% 80-76-5
42% 66-90-5
45% 70-85-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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