PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
54-41 | Road
2
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
52-43 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Orion Kerkering
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Wandy Peralta
#58 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orion Kerkering | None-None | 2.78 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
| Wandy Peralta | None-None | 3.61 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.78 Ldr
ERA
3.61
--
WHIP
--
0.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
52%
PADRES
48%
PHILLIES
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
39%
Under 0
61%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.3%
PHI By 3-4 runs
15.4%
SD By 1-2 runs
17.1%
SD By 3-4 runs
11.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
4.2
PHILADELPHIA
San Diego
3.54
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
San Diego
4
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Phillies (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.7
D
Sim
Padres (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 4, 2026
SD @ PHI
4 - 6
Jun 3, 2026
SD @ PHI
2 - 3
Jun 2, 2026
SD @ PHI
2 - 3
May 27, 2026
PHI @ SD
3 - 0
May 26, 2026
PHI @ SD
4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
San Diego
SD
2
Games Played
2
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.438
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.724
OPS
▲
.925
3
Home Runs
▲
4
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+13.8% more
Philadelphia: 8.3
vs
San Diego: 7.2
Hits (L5)
+9.5% more
Philadelphia: 9.0
vs
San Diego: 8.1
Walks (L5)
+124.2% more
San Diego: 4.4
vs
Philadelphia: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+71.4% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
4.2
2
SD Score
3.5
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.5
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.1 / 9.0
7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.0
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.2 / 8.3
11.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
13.9 / 14.1
7.0 / 8.0
Walks
4.4 / 2.0
2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
PHI
SD
PHI
ML
51%
85-83
59%
97-67
51%
85-82
49%
80-84
ATS
54%
91-77
65%
107-57
55%
92-75
51%
83-81
TTL
51%
82-80-6
57%
88-67-9
54%
86-74-6
51%
78-76-9
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