MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
42-51 | Road
6
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
43-50 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Janson Junk
#26 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Trevor Rogers
#28 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Janson Junk | None-None | 2.68 | -- | 7.0 | 2 |
| Trevor Rogers | None-None | 1.53 | -- | 6.2 | 8 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.68
ERA
Ldr 1.53
--
WHIP
--
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
6.2
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
49%
ORIOLES
51%
MARLINS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
37%
Under 0
63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-2 runs
18.5%
MIA By 3-4 runs
13.7%
BAL By 1-2 runs
18.3%
BAL By 3-4 runs
13.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
5.12
MIAMI
Baltimore
5.07
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Marlins
Win
49% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Marlins (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: 0.0
D
Sim
Orioles (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 7, 2026
BAL @ MIA
3 - 4
May 6, 2026
BAL @ MIA
7 - 4
May 5, 2026
BAL @ MIA
9 - 7
Jul 13, 2025
MIA @ BAL
11 - 1
Jul 12, 2025
MIA @ BAL
6 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.41
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.727
▲
OPS
.711
168
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+21.0% more
Miami: 0.6
vs
Baltimore: 0.4
OPS (Season)
+1.6%
Miami: 72.7%
vs
Baltimore: 71.1%
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.5%
Miami: 24.9%
vs
Baltimore: 23.4%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+1.2%
Miami: 32.6%
vs
Baltimore: 31.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
5.1
6
BAL Score
5.1
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.8 / 6.3
6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.7
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 8.5
8.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
13.1 / 9.3
8.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.4 / 2.4
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
MIA
BAL
MIA
ML
53%
83-73
48%
78-84
57%
90-69
55%
88-72
ATS
61%
95-60-1
56%
91-71
57%
90-68-1
54%
86-74
TTL
54%
81-70-5
56%
88-69-5
51%
78-75-6
53%
82-73-5
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