NEW YORK
METSNYM
54-41 | Road
3
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
46-49 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Luis Torrens
#13 | Catcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Lucas Erceg
#60 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Torrens | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Lucas Erceg | None-None | 2.21 | -- | 1.1 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
2.21
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
METS
58%
ROYALS
42%
METS
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
37%
Under 0
63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
NYM By 1-2 runs
16.7%
NYM By 3-4 runs
11.1%
KC By 1-2 runs
19.5%
KC By 3-4 runs
15.9%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
3.31
NEW YORK
Kansas City
4.15
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Kansas City
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Royals
Loss
42% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Royals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.8
B
Sim
Royals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 9, 2026
KC @ NYM
3 - 7
Jul 8, 2026
KC @ NYM
2 - 6
Jul 7, 2026
KC @ NYM
16 - 12
Jul 13, 2025
NYM @ KC
2 - 3
Jul 12, 2025
NYM @ KC
3 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Kansas City
KC
162
Games Played
162
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.705
OPS
▲
.718
204
▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+71.7% more
Kansas City: 4.4
vs
New York: 2.6
Strikeouts (L5)
+37.8% more
Kansas City: 9.5
vs
New York: 6.9
Home Runs (L5)
+28.0% more
Kansas City: 1.9
vs
New York: 1.5
Total Bases (L5)
+26.7% more
Kansas City: 18.2
vs
New York: 14.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
3.3
3
KC Score
4.2
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.1
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.5 / 8.1
4.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 1.5
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 6.9
11.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
18.2 / 14.4
7.0 / 11.0
Walks
4.4 / 2.6
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
Advantage
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
KC
Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
NYM
KC
NYM
ML
55%
89-72
50%
79-80
56%
90-70
48%
76-83
ATS
57%
91-70
58%
93-66
58%
93-67
49%
78-81
TTL
58%
90-64-7
55%
80-66-13
54%
83-70-7
51%
74-72-13
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