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TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

50-45  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Jul 12 • 4:10 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

51-45  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Taylor Walls
STARTING PITCHER

Taylor Walls

#6 | Shortstop
@
Wilyer Abreu
STARTING PITCHER

Wilyer Abreu

#52 | Right Field
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Taylor Walls None-None -- -- -- --
Wilyer Abreu None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
50%
📊
RED SOX
50%
RAYS --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 68%
Under 0 32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Boston)
RaysTB (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

37.4%

Red Sox Cover

62.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

TB By 1-2 runs

15.6%

TB By 3-4 runs

9.8%

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.7%

BOS By 3-4 runs

17.0%

AI Model Projected Score
5.3
TAMPA BAY
6.58
BOSTON
Simulated Score
3
TAMPA BAY
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Sox Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Sox Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Sox (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.3
D
Sim Red Sox (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.9
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 BOS @ TB 1 - 5
Sep 19, 2026 BOS @ TB 1 - 2
Sep 18, 2026 BOS @ TB 4 - 2
Jul 19, 2026 TB @ BOS 1 - 6
Jul 18, 2026 TB @ BOS 6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
Boston BOS
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.54 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.728 ▲
OPS
.409
169 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +69.0% more
Boston: 1.5 vs Tampa Bay: 0.8
Errors (L5) +54.0% more
Boston: 0.7 vs Tampa Bay: 0.2
Total Bases (L5) +23.9% more
Boston: 16.8 vs Tampa Bay: 13.5
Strikeouts (L5) +15.5% more
Boston: 7.8 vs Tampa Bay: 6.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 5.3 0
BOS Score 6.6 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.3 / 9.0 5.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.8 / 6.7 9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 16.8 / 13.5 8.0 / 3.0
Walks 2.7 / 4.3 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
BOS
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
TB
BOS
TB
ML
50% 80-80
58% 95-68
47% 76-87
58% 95-68
ATS
58% 93-67
60% 97-66
48% 79-84
55% 90-73
TTL
46% 72-83-5
47% 73-81-9
47% 74-83-6
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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