CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
44-49 | Road
6
CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
32-63 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Matt Festa
#52 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Burke
#59 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Festa | None-None | 5.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Sean Burke | None-None | 4.36 | -- | 5.0 | 5 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.00
ERA
Ldr 4.36
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
64%
WHITE SOX
36%
GUARDIANS
--
WHITE SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CLE -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.5%
CLE By 3-4 runs
16.0%
CHW By 1-2 runs
16.6%
CHW By 3-4 runs
11.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
3.74
CLEVELAND
Chicago
2.86
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Guardians
Win
64% Win Prob
C
Sim
White Sox
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Guardians (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
C
Sim
White Sox (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 7, 2026
CLE @ CHW
9 - 3
Oct 5, 2026
CHW @ CLE
4 - 3
Oct 3, 2026
CHW @ CLE
3 - 0
Sep 16, 2026
CHW @ CLE
3 - 6
Sep 15, 2026
CHW @ CLE
6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Chicago
CHW
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.324
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.415
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.412
.696
OPS
▲
.826
162
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.4% more
Cleveland: 162.0
vs
Chicago: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+70.5% more
Cleveland: 2.2
vs
Chicago: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+40.3% more
Cleveland: 14.3
vs
Chicago: 8.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+34.0% more
Cleveland: 8.9
vs
Chicago: 5.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
3.7
6
CHW Score
2.9
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.1 / 6.4
6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 2.2
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
5.9 / 8.9
9.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
8.5 / 14.3
6.0 / 12.0
Walks
2.5 / 3.4
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
CLE
CHW
CLE
ML
49%
81-86
54%
87-74
56%
94-73
49%
80-82
ATS
59%
99-68
58%
93-68
56%
93-74
59%
95-67
TTL
58%
96-69-2
55%
88-71-2
51%
84-81-2
43%
69-90-2
Contextual Game News
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom
Trump Surprises Clemens with Medal of Freedom Announcement at Te…
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …