PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
54-40 | Road
4
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
51-43 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Zack Wheeler
#45 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jeremiah Estrada
#56 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | None-None | 2.36 | -- | 6.0 | 6 |
| Jeremiah Estrada | None-None | 2.93 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.36 Ldr
ERA
2.93
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
53%
PADRES
47%
PHILLIES
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
28%
Under 0
72%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
16.6%
SD By 1-2 runs
16.0%
SD By 3-4 runs
10.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
4.49
PHILADELPHIA
San Diego
3.36
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Phillies (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.1
D
Sim
Padres (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 4, 2026
SD @ PHI
4 - 6
Jun 3, 2026
SD @ PHI
2 - 3
Jun 2, 2026
SD @ PHI
2 - 3
May 27, 2026
PHI @ SD
3 - 0
May 26, 2026
PHI @ SD
4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
San Diego
SD
2
Games Played
2
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.438
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.724
OPS
▲
.925
3
Home Runs
▲
4
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+47.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.7
vs
San Diego: 0.3
Home Runs (L5)
+24.7% more
Philadelphia: 1.5
vs
San Diego: 1.2
Total Bases (L5)
+15.0% more
Philadelphia: 15.2
vs
San Diego: 12.9
Hits (L5)
+8.7% more
Philadelphia: 9.0
vs
San Diego: 8.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
4.5
4
SD Score
3.4
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.7
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.2 / 9.0
8.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.5
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.3 / 7.5
3.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
12.9 / 15.2
16.0 / 12.0
Walks
4.7 / 2.5
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
PHI
SD
PHI
ML
51%
85-83
59%
97-67
51%
85-82
49%
80-84
ATS
54%
91-77
65%
107-57
55%
92-75
51%
83-81
TTL
51%
82-80-6
57%
88-67-9
54%
86-74-6
51%
78-76-9
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …