TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
55-39 | Road
3
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
39-57 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Nathan Lukes
#38 | Right Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Elvis Alvarado
#37 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Lukes | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Elvis Alvarado | None-None | 3.46 | -- | 1.2 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
3.46
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
4
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
67%
ATHLETICS
33%
BLUE JAYS
--
ATHLETICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
47%
Under 0
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TOR By 3-4 runs
16.3%
ATH By 1-2 runs
16.3%
ATH By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
5.3
TORONTO
Athletics
4.29
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Athletics
6
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays
Loss
67% Win Prob
C
Sim
Athletics
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Athletics (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 9, 2026
TOR @ ATH
0 - 2
Sep 8, 2026
TOR @ ATH
4 - 2
Sep 7, 2026
TOR @ ATH
5 - 6
Mar 29, 2026
ATH @ TOR
2 - 5
Mar 28, 2026
ATH @ TOR
7 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Athletics
ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.692
OPS
▲
.719
152
Home Runs
▲
194
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+14.7% more
Toronto: 10.4
vs
Athletics: 8.9
Strikeouts (L5)
+13.0% more
Toronto: 10.6
vs
Athletics: 9.2
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.2%
Toronto: 24.7%
vs
Athletics: 24.5%
Home Runs (L5)
+148.0% more
Athletics: 2.2
vs
Toronto: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
5.3
3
ATH Score
4.3
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.2
0.0 / 3.0
Hits
8.9 / 10.4
8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
2.2 / 0.7
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.2 / 10.6
13.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
16.9 / 14.6
12.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.9 / 2.3
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
ATH
Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
TOR
ATH
TOR
ML
59%
95-67
46%
74-87
54%
87-74
50%
80-80
ATS
52%
84-78
56%
90-71
50%
81-80
49%
79-81
TTL
54%
84-73-5
51%
80-76-5
42%
66-90-5
45%
70-85-5
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