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MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

42-50  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, Jul 11 • 7:05 PM ET
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

42-50  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Cade Gibson
STARTING PITCHER

Cade Gibson

#58 | Relief Pitcher
@
Andrew Kittredge
STARTING PITCHER

Andrew Kittredge

#39 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Cade Gibson None-None 2.79 -- 1.0 --
Andrew Kittredge None-None 4.18 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
2.79 Ldr ERA 4.18
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
50%
📊
ORIOLES
50%
MARLINS --
ORIOLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 42%
Under 0 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Miami)
MarlinsMIA (-3.5) 0 OriolesBAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

53.8%

Orioles Cover

46.2%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-2 runs

19.0%

MIA By 3-4 runs

14.7%

BAL By 1-2 runs

17.7%

BAL By 3-4 runs

12.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.25
MIAMI
4.87
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
3
MIAMI
6
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Marlins Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Orioles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Marlins (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
C
Sim Orioles (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 7, 2026 BAL @ MIA 3 - 4
May 6, 2026 BAL @ MIA 7 - 4
May 5, 2026 BAL @ MIA 9 - 7
Jul 13, 2025 MIA @ BAL 11 - 1
Jul 12, 2025 MIA @ BAL 6 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
Baltimore BAL
162 ▲
Games Played
161
4.41
Runs / Game
▲ 4.46
.249 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.727 ▲
OPS
.711
168
Home Runs
▲ 199
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +32.0% more
Miami: 0.8 vs Baltimore: 0.5
OPS (Season) +1.6%
Miami: 72.7% vs Baltimore: 71.1%
Batting Avg (Season) +1.5%
Miami: 24.9% vs Baltimore: 23.4%
On-Base Pct (Season) +1.2%
Miami: 32.6% vs Baltimore: 31.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 5.3 2
BAL Score 4.9 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.2 / 6.9 12.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.8 / 8.8 9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 12.2 / 9.9 15.0 / 8.0
Walks 3.1 / 2.5 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
MIA
BAL
MIA
ML
53% 83-73
48% 78-84
57% 90-69
55% 88-72
ATS
61% 95-60-1
56% 91-71
57% 90-68-1
54% 86-74
TTL
54% 81-70-5
56% 88-69-5
51% 78-75-6
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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