NEW YORK
METSNYM
53-41 | Road
8
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
46-48 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kodai Senga
#34 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Steven Cruz
#64 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kodai Senga | None-None | 1.39 | -- | 4.0 | 4 |
| Steven Cruz | None-None | 2.75 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.39 Ldr
ERA
2.75
--
WHIP
--
4.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
METS
57%
ROYALS
43%
METS
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
NYM By 1-2 runs
12.9%
NYM By 3-4 runs
7.3%
KC By 1-2 runs
19.4%
KC By 3-4 runs
18.8%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
2.53
NEW YORK
Kansas City
4.75
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Kansas City
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Royals
Loss
43% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Royals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.2
A
Sim
Royals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 9, 2026
KC @ NYM
3 - 7
Jul 8, 2026
KC @ NYM
2 - 6
Jul 7, 2026
KC @ NYM
16 - 12
Jul 13, 2025
NYM @ KC
2 - 3
Jul 12, 2025
NYM @ KC
3 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Kansas City
KC
162
Games Played
162
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.705
OPS
▲
.718
204
▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+89.6% more
Kansas City: 2.4
vs
New York: 1.3
Total Bases (L5)
+42.3% more
Kansas City: 19.3
vs
New York: 13.6
Errors (L5)
+38.0% more
Kansas City: 0.5
vs
New York: 0.1
Hits (L5)
+14.5% more
Kansas City: 9.3
vs
New York: 8.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
2.5
8
KC Score
4.8
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.3 / 8.1
10.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
2.4 / 1.3
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 7.3
12.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
19.3 / 13.6
16.0 / 16.0
Walks
2.7 / 2.9
8.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
Advantage
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
KC
Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
NYM
KC
NYM
ML
55%
89-72
50%
79-80
56%
90-70
48%
76-83
ATS
57%
91-70
58%
93-66
58%
93-67
49%
78-81
TTL
58%
90-64-7
55%
80-66-13
54%
83-70-7
51%
74-72-13
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