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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

54-39  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, Jul 11 • 9:40 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

50-43  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Luis Arraez
STARTING PITCHER

Luis Arraez

#4 | Second Base
@
Adrian Morejon
STARTING PITCHER

Adrian Morejon

#50 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Luis Arraez None-None -- -- -- --
Adrian Morejon None-None 1.67 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 1.67
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
54%
📊
PADRES
46%
PHILLIES --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 25%
Under 0 75%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Philadelphia)
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

72.4%

Padres Cover

27.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.3%

PHI By 3-4 runs

19.0%

SD By 1-2 runs

12.5%

SD By 3-4 runs

6.9%

AI Model Projected Score
5.23
PHILADELPHIA
2.85
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
4
PHILADELPHIA
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phillies Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Phillies (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.4
D
Sim Padres (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 4, 2026 SD @ PHI 4 - 6
Jun 3, 2026 SD @ PHI 2 - 3
Jun 2, 2026 SD @ PHI 2 - 3
May 27, 2026 PHI @ SD 3 - 0
May 26, 2026 PHI @ SD 4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
San Diego SD
2
Games Played
2
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.438
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.724
OPS
▲ .925
3
Home Runs
▲ 4
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +24.5% more
Philadelphia: 11.0 vs San Diego: 8.3
Total Bases (L5) +22.7% more
Philadelphia: 17.3 vs San Diego: 13.4
Walks (L5) +127.4% more
San Diego: 5.0 vs Philadelphia: 2.2
Runs per Game (Season) +71.4% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 5.2 2
SD Score 2.9 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.1 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 8.3 / 11.0 8.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.3 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 8.7 11.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 13.4 / 17.3 12.0 / 11.0
Walks 5.0 / 2.2 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
25%MONEY75%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
PHI
SD
PHI
ML
51% 85-83
59% 97-67
51% 85-82
49% 80-84
ATS
54% 91-77
65% 107-57
55% 92-75
51% 83-81
TTL
51% 82-80-6
57% 88-67-9
54% 86-74-6
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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