NEW YORK
METSNYM
53-40 | Road
3
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
41-50 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brett Baty
#7 | Third Base@
STARTING PITCHER
Grant Wolfram
#48 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Baty | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Grant Wolfram | None-None | 5.40 | -- | 2.0 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
5.40
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
2.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
4
AI Model Win Probability
METS
62%
ORIOLES
38%
METS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
35%
Under 0
65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
NYM By 1-2 runs
14.7%
NYM By 3-4 runs
8.9%
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BAL By 3-4 runs
17.7%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
3.19
NEW YORK
Baltimore
4.8
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Win
38% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.6
B
Sim
Orioles (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
BAL @ NYM
7 - 1
Sep 15, 2026
BAL @ NYM
7 - 5
Sep 14, 2026
BAL @ NYM
2 - 1
Jul 10, 2025
NYM @ BAL
3 - 7
Jul 8, 2025
NYM @ BAL
7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.705
OPS
▲
.711
204
▲
Home Runs
199
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+35.9% more
Baltimore: 3.1
vs
New York: 2.3
Strikeouts (L5)
+34.2% more
Baltimore: 10.6
vs
New York: 7.9
Errors (L5)
+14.0% more
Baltimore: 0.3
vs
New York: 0.1
Runs per Game (Season)
+3.5% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
New York: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
3.2
3
BAL Score
4.8
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.1
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.8 / 9.7
6.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.9
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.6 / 7.9
8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
13.7 / 16.9
9.0 / 7.0
Walks
3.1 / 2.3
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
NYM
BAL
NYM
ML
53%
83-73
50%
79-80
57%
90-69
48%
76-83
ATS
61%
95-60-1
58%
93-66
57%
90-68-1
49%
78-81
TTL
54%
81-70-5
55%
80-66-13
51%
78-75-6
51%
74-72-13
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