TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
50-43 | Road
3
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
49-45 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Englert
#59 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Aroldis Chapman
#44 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Englert | None-None | 4.44 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Aroldis Chapman | None-None | 1.22 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.44
ERA
Ldr 1.22
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
52%
RED SOX
48%
RAYS
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
TB By 1-2 runs
15.0%
TB By 3-4 runs
9.2%
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BOS By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
5.29
TAMPA BAY
Boston
6.8
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Boston
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox
Win
48% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
C
Sim
Red Sox (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 12.1
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
BOS @ TB
1 - 5
Sep 19, 2026
BOS @ TB
1 - 2
Sep 18, 2026
BOS @ TB
4 - 2
Jul 19, 2026
TB @ BOS
1 - 6
Jul 18, 2026
TB @ BOS
6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.728
▲
OPS
.409
169
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+178.0% more
Boston: 2.6
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.9
Total Bases (L5)
+57.4% more
Boston: 24.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 15.7
Hits (L5)
+18.3% more
Boston: 12.8
vs
Tampa Bay: 10.8
Home Runs (Season)
+98.8% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
5.3
3
BOS Score
6.8
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
12.8 / 10.8
4.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
2.6 / 0.9
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 9.1
6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
24.7 / 15.7
5.0 / 13.0
Walks
1.7 / 4.1
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
TB
BOS
TB
ML
50%
80-80
58%
95-68
47%
76-87
58%
95-68
ATS
58%
93-67
60%
97-66
48%
79-84
55%
90-73
TTL
46%
72-83-5
47%
73-81-9
47%
74-83-6
51%
78-75-10
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