TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
49-43 | Road
7
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
59-34 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Englert
#59 | Relief Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Matt Vierling
#8 | Center Field| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Englert | None-None | 4.63 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Matt Vierling | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.63
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
40%
TIGERS
60%
RAYS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
TB By 1-2 runs
15.9%
TB By 3-4 runs
10.2%
DET By 1-2 runs
19.7%
DET By 3-4 runs
16.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
4.67
TAMPA BAY
Detroit
5.82
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Detroit
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Tigers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.2
D
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 26, 2026
TB @ DET
3 - 0
Aug 25, 2026
TB @ DET
1 - 4
Aug 24, 2026
TB @ DET
4 - 1
Jun 3, 2026
DET @ TB
7 - 2
Jun 2, 2026
DET @ TB
8 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Detroit
DET
162
Games Played
162
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.320
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.728
▲
OPS
.720
169
Home Runs
▲
181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+136.0% more
Detroit: 2.1
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.8
Total Bases (L5)
+15.5% more
Detroit: 13.9
vs
Tampa Bay: 12.1
Home Runs (Season)
+7.1% more
Detroit: 181.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 169.0
Walks (L5)
+52.6% more
Tampa Bay: 4.2
vs
Detroit: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
4.7
7
DET Score
5.8
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.3 / 8.2
8.0 / 16.0
Home Runs
2.1 / 0.8
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 10.2
4.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
13.9 / 12.1
11.0 / 23.0
Walks
2.0 / 4.2
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
TB
DET
TB
ML
54%
86-73
58%
95-68
54%
87-73
58%
95-68
ATS
64%
101-58
60%
97-66
57%
91-69
55%
90-73
TTL
46%
69-81-9
47%
73-81-9
46%
69-81-10
51%
78-75-10
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