NEW YORK
METSNYM
52-39 | Road
7
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
40-49 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brett Baty
#7 | Third Base@
STARTING PITCHER
Yennier Cano
#78 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Baty | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Yennier Cano | None-None | 4.11 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
4.11
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
METS
62%
ORIOLES
38%
METS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
44%
Under 0
56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.6
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -2.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
NYM By 1-2 runs
11.9%
NYM By 3-4 runs
6.4%
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.1%
BAL By 3-4 runs
19.2%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
2.73
NEW YORK
Baltimore
5.29
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Baltimore
6
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Loss
38% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.6
C
Sim
Orioles (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
BAL @ NYM
7 - 1
Sep 15, 2026
BAL @ NYM
7 - 5
Sep 14, 2026
BAL @ NYM
2 - 1
Jul 10, 2025
NYM @ BAL
3 - 7
Jul 8, 2025
NYM @ BAL
7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.705
OPS
▲
.711
204
▲
Home Runs
199
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+21.0% more
Baltimore: 0.4
vs
New York: 0.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+19.7% more
Baltimore: 9.5
vs
New York: 7.9
Home Runs (L5)
+18.9% more
Baltimore: 1.6
vs
New York: 1.3
Walks (L5)
+9.7% more
Baltimore: 2.7
vs
New York: 2.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
2.7
7
BAL Score
5.3
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.3 / 9.0
9.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 1.3
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 7.9
13.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
14.1 / 14.3
13.0 / 22.0
Walks
2.7 / 2.5
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
NYM
BAL
NYM
ML
53%
83-73
50%
79-80
57%
90-69
48%
76-83
ATS
61%
95-60-1
58%
93-66
57%
90-68-1
49%
78-81
TTL
54%
81-70-5
55%
80-66-13
51%
78-75-6
51%
74-72-13
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