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TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

49-42  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, Jul 8 • 6:40 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

58-34  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Chandler Simpson
STARTING PITCHER

Chandler Simpson

#14 | Left Field
@
Tyler Holton
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Holton

#87 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Chandler Simpson None-None -- -- -- --
Tyler Holton None-None 3.68 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 3.68
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
41%
📊
TIGERS
59%
RAYS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 53%
Under 0 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Detroit)
RaysTB (-3.5) 0 TigersDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

40.1%

Tigers Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

TB By 1-2 runs

16.3%

TB By 3-4 runs

10.6%

DET By 1-2 runs

19.6%

DET By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5.03
TAMPA BAY
6.03
DETROIT
Simulated Score
3
TAMPA BAY
4
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
59% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 26, 2026 TB @ DET 3 - 0
Aug 25, 2026 TB @ DET 1 - 4
Aug 24, 2026 TB @ DET 4 - 1
Jun 3, 2026 DET @ TB 7 - 2
Jun 2, 2026 DET @ TB 8 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
Detroit DET
162
Games Played
162
4.54 ▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.320
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.728 ▲
OPS
.720
169
Home Runs
▲ 181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +154.0% more
Detroit: 2.2 vs Tampa Bay: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +31.5% more
Detroit: 15.9 vs Tampa Bay: 12.1
Home Runs (Season) +7.1% more
Detroit: 181.0 vs Tampa Bay: 169.0
Errors (L5) +59.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.9 vs Detroit: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 5.0 2
DET Score 6.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.9 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.4 / 8.3 4.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 2.2 / 0.7 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 10.3 11.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 15.9 / 12.1 10.0 / 12.0
Walks 2.5 / 3.3 1.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
TB
DET
TB
ML
54% 86-73
58% 95-68
54% 87-73
58% 95-68
ATS
64% 101-58
60% 97-66
57% 91-69
55% 90-73
TTL
46% 69-81-9
47% 73-81-9
46% 69-81-10
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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