DETROIT
TIGERSDET
56-34 | Road
7
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
40-47 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Javier Baez
#28 | Shortstop@
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Smith
#36 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Baez | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Cade Smith | None-None | 3.19 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
3.19
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
66%
GUARDIANS
34%
TIGERS
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DET By 1-2 runs
19.6%
DET By 3-4 runs
16.2%
CLE By 1-2 runs
16.4%
CLE By 3-4 runs
10.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
3.63
DETROIT
Cleveland
2.68
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Detroit
4
DETROIT
Cleveland
6
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tigers
Win
66% Win Prob
C
Sim
Guardians
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tigers (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
D
Sim
Guardians (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.3
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
DET @ CLE
2 - 3
Sep 5, 2026
DET @ CLE
6 - 0
Sep 4, 2026
DET @ CLE
6 - 7
Aug 13, 2026
CLE @ DET
0 - 3
Aug 12, 2026
CLE @ DET
6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.241
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.320
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.720
▲
OPS
.696
181
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+64.3% more
Detroit: 1.7
vs
Cleveland: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+27.9% more
Detroit: 12.8
vs
Cleveland: 9.2
Errors (L5)
+27.0% more
Detroit: 0.6
vs
Cleveland: 0.3
Hits (L5)
+12.7% more
Detroit: 6.9
vs
Cleveland: 6.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
3.6
7
CLE Score
2.7
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.6
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.1 / 6.9
6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.7
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 7.4
11.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
9.2 / 12.8
9.0 / 13.0
Walks
4.0 / 3.1
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
DET
CLE
DET
ML
54%
87-74
54%
86-73
49%
80-82
54%
87-73
ATS
58%
93-68
64%
101-58
59%
95-67
57%
91-69
TTL
55%
88-71-2
46%
69-81-9
43%
69-90-2
46%
69-81-10
Contextual Game News
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom
Trump Surprises Clemens with Medal of Freedom Announcement at Te…
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …