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ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

48-42  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sun, Jul 6 • 6:10 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

53-36  |  Home

11
Probable Pitchers
Kyle Leahy
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Leahy

#62 | Starting Pitcher
@
Matthew Boyd
STARTING PITCHER

Matthew Boyd

#16 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kyle Leahy None-None 3.04 -- 1.1 1
Matthew Boyd None-None 2.52 -- 5.0 9
None-None W-L None-None
3.04 ERA Ldr 2.52
-- WHIP --
1.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 9
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
44%
📊
CUBS
56%
CARDINALS --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 59%
Under 0 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Chicago)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

34.1%

Cubs Cover

65.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

STL By 1-2 runs

14.6%

STL By 3-4 runs

8.8%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CHC By 3-4 runs

17.8%

AI Model Projected Score
4.04
ST. LOUIS
5.68
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
3
ST. LOUIS
4
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim Cubs (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 STL @ CHC 11 - 4
Aug 15, 2026 STL @ CHC 8 - 4
Aug 14, 2026 STL @ CHC 0 - 3
Jul 30, 2026 CHC @ STL 4 - 2
Jul 29, 2026 CHC @ STL 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.44 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.239 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.313 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.378 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.691 ▲
OPS
.374
167 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +87.6% more
Chicago: 2.7 vs St. Louis: 1.5
Total Bases (L5) +38.9% more
Chicago: 19.2 vs St. Louis: 13.8
Errors (L5) +14.0% more
Chicago: 0.5 vs St. Louis: 0.4
Hits (L5) +9.1% more
Chicago: 9.1 vs St. Louis: 8.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 4.0 0
CHC Score 5.7 11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.4 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.1 / 8.3 13.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 2.7 / 1.5 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.2 / 7.3 11.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 19.2 / 13.8 21.0 / 8.0
Walks 2.8 / 3.2 1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
STL
CHC
STL
ML
58% 93-68
53% 85-74
51% 82-79
52% 84-77
ATS
61% 97-63-1
56% 89-70
47% 75-85-1
53% 85-76
TTL
52% 81-74-6
46% 68-81-10
46% 72-83-6
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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