Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Cubs STL @ CHC

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

47-42  |  Road

8
FINAL
Sat, Jul 5 • 2:20 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

53-35  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Kyle Leahy
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Leahy

#62 | Starting Pitcher
@
Caleb Thielbar
STARTING PITCHER

Caleb Thielbar

#24 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kyle Leahy None-None 3.13 -- 0.1 --
Caleb Thielbar None-None 1.89 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.13 ERA Ldr 1.89
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
42%
📊
CUBS
58%
CARDINALS --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Chicago)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

34.7%

Cubs Cover

65.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

STL By 1-2 runs

14.8%

STL By 3-4 runs

9.0%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CHC By 3-4 runs

17.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
ST. LOUIS
5.37
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
4
ST. LOUIS
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Loss
58% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim Cubs (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.2
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 STL @ CHC 11 - 4
Aug 15, 2026 STL @ CHC 8 - 4
Aug 14, 2026 STL @ CHC 0 - 3
Jul 30, 2026 CHC @ STL 4 - 2
Jul 29, 2026 CHC @ STL 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.44 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.239 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.313 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.378 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.691 ▲
OPS
.374
167 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +241.0% more
Chicago: 3.1 vs St. Louis: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +103.2% more
Chicago: 19.9 vs St. Louis: 9.8
Walks (L5) +69.9% more
Chicago: 3.2 vs St. Louis: 1.9
Hits (L5) +52.1% more
Chicago: 9.1 vs St. Louis: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 3.8 8
CHC Score 5.4 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.0 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.1 / 6.0 9.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 3.1 / 0.7 2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 6.8 / 6.5 8.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 19.9 / 9.8 18.0 / 22.0
Walks 3.2 / 1.9 2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
STL
CHC
STL
ML
58% 93-68
53% 85-74
51% 82-79
52% 84-77
ATS
61% 97-63-1
56% 89-70
47% 75-85-1
53% 85-76
TTL
52% 81-74-6
46% 68-81-10
46% 72-83-6
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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