BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
38-49 | Road
9
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
39-48 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Yennier Cano
#78 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Raisel Iglesias
#26 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yennier Cano | None-None | 4.40 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Raisel Iglesias | None-None | 4.96 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.40 Ldr
ERA
4.96
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
49%
BRAVES
51%
ORIOLES
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BAL By 3-4 runs
17.1%
ATL By 1-2 runs
15.4%
ATL By 3-4 runs
9.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
4.52
BALTIMORE
Atlanta
3.19
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Orioles
Win
49% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Orioles (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.3
C
Sim
Braves (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 26, 2026
ATL @ BAL
3 - 2
Jul 25, 2026
ATL @ BAL
2 - 3
Jul 24, 2026
ATL @ BAL
7 - 6
Jul 6, 2025
BAL @ ATL
2 - 1
Jul 5, 2025
BAL @ ATL
9 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Atlanta
ATL
161
▲
Games Played
1
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.234
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.711
OPS
▲
.757
199
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.5% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+30.0% more
Baltimore: 0.4
vs
Atlanta: 0.1
Total Bases (L5)
+15.5% more
Baltimore: 13.7
vs
Atlanta: 11.6
Home Runs (L5)
+10.9% more
Baltimore: 1.3
vs
Atlanta: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
4.5
9
ATL Score
3.2
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.4
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.2 / 7.8
10.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.3
2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
9.9 / 8.3
15.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
11.6 / 13.7
20.0 / 21.0
Walks
3.0 / 2.6
5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
BAL
ATL
BAL
ML
46%
77-90
53%
83-73
54%
90-78
57%
90-69
ATS
57%
96-71
61%
95-60-1
52%
87-81
57%
90-68-1
TTL
53%
83-73-11
54%
81-70-5
49%
76-80-11
51%
78-75-6
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