DETROIT
TIGERSDET
55-34 | Road
1
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
40-46 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Zach McKinstry
#39 | Right Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Smith
#36 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach McKinstry | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Cade Smith | None-None | 2.23 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
2.23
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
65%
GUARDIANS
35%
TIGERS
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
61%
Under 0
39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
DET By 1-2 runs
18.1%
DET By 3-4 runs
13.1%
CLE By 1-2 runs
18.7%
CLE By 3-4 runs
14.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
3.41
DETROIT
Cleveland
3.57
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Guardians
Loss
35% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Guardians (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
D
Sim
Guardians (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
DET @ CLE
2 - 3
Sep 5, 2026
DET @ CLE
6 - 0
Sep 4, 2026
DET @ CLE
6 - 7
Aug 13, 2026
CLE @ DET
0 - 3
Aug 12, 2026
CLE @ DET
6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.241
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.320
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.720
▲
OPS
.696
181
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+26.3% more
Cleveland: 4.0
vs
Detroit: 3.2
Home Runs (L5)
+56.0% more
Detroit: 2.1
vs
Cleveland: 0.9
Errors (L5)
+40.0% more
Detroit: 0.9
vs
Cleveland: 0.5
Total Bases (L5)
+35.1% more
Detroit: 16.7
vs
Cleveland: 10.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
3.4
1
CLE Score
3.6
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.1 / 9.4
4.0 / 2.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 2.1
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 8.1
9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
10.8 / 16.7
6.0 / 5.0
Walks
4.0 / 3.2
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
DET
CLE
DET
ML
54%
87-74
54%
86-73
49%
80-82
54%
87-73
ATS
58%
93-68
64%
101-58
59%
95-67
57%
91-69
TTL
55%
88-71-2
46%
69-81-9
43%
69-90-2
46%
69-81-10
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