Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Athletics SF @ ATH

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

47-42  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Jul 5 • 10:05 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

37-53  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Logan Webb
STARTING PITCHER

Logan Webb

#62 | Starting Pitcher
@
Elvis Alvarado
STARTING PITCHER

Elvis Alvarado

#37 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Logan Webb None-None 2.62 -- 6.2 6
Elvis Alvarado None-None 4.82 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
2.62 Ldr ERA 4.82
-- WHIP --
6.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
6 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
62%
📊
ATHLETICS
38%
GIANTS --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 47%
Under 0 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Athletics)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

42.2%

Athletics Cover

57.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

SF By 1-2 runs

16.8%

SF By 3-4 runs

11.2%

ATH By 1-2 runs

19.4%

ATH By 3-4 runs

15.8%

AI Model Projected Score
3.54
SAN FRANCISCO
4.33
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
3
SAN FRANCISCO
5
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Athletics Loss
38% Win Prob
D
Sim Athletics Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Athletics (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.8
B
Sim Athletics (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.9
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 25, 2026 ATH @ SF 9 - 6
Jun 24, 2026 ATH @ SF 1 - 2
Jun 23, 2026 ATH @ SF 1 - 3
May 17, 2026 SF @ ATH 10 - 1
May 16, 2026 SF @ ATH 6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Athletics ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.245
Avg (AVG)
.245
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.706
OPS
▲ .719
178
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +130.0% more
Athletics: 1.9 vs San Francisco: 0.6
Total Bases (L5) +45.0% more
Athletics: 18.8 vs San Francisco: 13.0
Walks (L5) +22.0% more
Athletics: 2.8 vs San Francisco: 2.3
Hits (L5) +16.2% more
Athletics: 9.3 vs San Francisco: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 3.5 7
ATH Score 4.3 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.2 / 1.3 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.3 / 8.0 7.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.9 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 9.9 6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 18.8 / 13.0 12.0 / 16.0
Walks 2.8 / 2.3 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
86%MONEY14%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF Advantage
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
SF
ATH
SF
ML
59% 95-67
49% 79-81
54% 87-74
53% 85-75
ATS
52% 84-78
62% 100-60
50% 81-80
52% 83-77
TTL
54% 84-73-5
55% 82-68-10
42% 66-90-5
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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