Home / MLB Projections MLB / Angels @ Blue Jays LAA @ TOR

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

43-43  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, Jul 4 • 7:07 PM ET
Rogers Centre
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

49-38  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Sam Bachman
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Bachman

#40 | Relief Pitcher
@
Brendon Little
STARTING PITCHER

Brendon Little

#54 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sam Bachman None-None 2.00 -- -- --
Brendon Little None-None 2.23 -- 0.2 2
None-None W-L None-None
2.00 Ldr ERA 2.23
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 0.2
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
44%
📊
BLUE JAYS
56%
ANGELS --
BLUE JAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Toronto)
AngelsLAA (-3.5) 0 Blue JaysTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

36.3%

Blue Jays Cover

63.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

LAA By 1-2 runs

15.3%

LAA By 3-4 runs

9.5%

TOR By 1-2 runs

19.7%

TOR By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.42
LOS ANGELES
5.82
TORONTO
Simulated Score
4
LOS ANGELES
6
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blue Jays Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Jays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blue Jays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim Blue Jays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.2
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 10, 2026 LAA @ TOR 6 - 1
May 9, 2026 LAA @ TOR 1 - 14
May 8, 2026 LAA @ TOR 0 - 2
Apr 22, 2026 TOR @ LAA 3 - 7
Apr 21, 2026 TOR @ LAA 4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
Toronto TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.04 ▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.310
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .381
.679
OPS
▲ .692
154 ▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +64.0% more
Toronto: 2.3 vs Los Angeles: 1.4
Walks (L5) +47.1% more
Toronto: 4.8 vs Los Angeles: 3.3
Errors (L5) +28.0% more
Toronto: 0.4 vs Los Angeles: 0.2
Total Bases (L5) +23.1% more
Toronto: 19.2 vs Los Angeles: 15.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 4.4 3
TOR Score 5.8 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.2 1.0 / 2.0
Hits 10.3 / 9.1 5.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 2.3 / 1.4 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.1 / 10.0 11.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 19.2 / 15.6 6.0 / 9.0
Walks 4.8 / 3.3 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
TOR Advantage
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
LAA
TOR
LAA
ML
46% 74-87
59% 96-66
50% 80-80
55% 89-73
ATS
56% 90-71
60% 97-65
49% 79-81
51% 82-80
TTL
51% 80-76-5
53% 83-74-5
45% 70-85-5
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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