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BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

37-49  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, Jul 4 • 7:15 PM ET
Truist Park
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

39-47  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Andrew Kittredge
STARTING PITCHER

Andrew Kittredge

#39 | Relief Pitcher
@
Dylan Lee
STARTING PITCHER

Dylan Lee

#52 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Andrew Kittredge None-None 4.12 -- 1.2 1
Dylan Lee None-None 2.27 -- 1.2 1
None-None W-L None-None
4.12 ERA Ldr 2.27
-- WHIP --
1.2 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.2
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
48%
📊
BRAVES
52%
ORIOLES --
BRAVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Baltimore)
OriolesBAL (-3.5) 0 BravesATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

57.2%

Braves Cover

42.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

BAL By 1-2 runs

19.4%

BAL By 3-4 runs

15.6%

ATL By 1-2 runs

17.0%

ATL By 3-4 runs

11.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4.22
BALTIMORE
3.49
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
4
BALTIMORE
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Orioles Win
48% Win Prob
D
Sim Braves Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Orioles (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.7
C
Sim Braves (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 26, 2026 ATL @ BAL 3 - 2
Jul 25, 2026 ATL @ BAL 2 - 3
Jul 24, 2026 ATL @ BAL 7 - 6
Jul 6, 2025 BAL @ ATL 2 - 1
Jul 5, 2025 BAL @ ATL 9 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
Atlanta ATL
161 ▲
Games Played
1
4.46
Runs / Game
▲ 5.00
.234 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .324
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .433
.711
OPS
▲ .757
199 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +99.5% more
Baltimore: 199.0 vs Atlanta: 1.0
Errors (L5) +45.0% more
Baltimore: 0.7 vs Atlanta: 0.2
Total Bases (L5) +8.6% more
Baltimore: 13.6 vs Atlanta: 12.4
Home Runs (L5) +29.0% more
Atlanta: 1.2 vs Baltimore: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 4.2 3
ATL Score 3.5 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.7 / 8.2 6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 0.9 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 10.8 / 8.4 8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 12.4 / 13.6 10.0 / 14.0
Walks 3.9 / 3.4 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
BAL
ATL
BAL
ML
46% 77-90
53% 83-73
54% 90-78
57% 90-69
ATS
57% 96-71
61% 95-60-1
52% 87-81
57% 90-68-1
TTL
53% 83-73-11
54% 81-70-5
49% 76-80-11
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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