Home / MLB Projections MLB / Tigers @ Nationals DET @ WSH

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

54-33  |  Road

7
FINAL
Thu, Jul 3 • 6:45 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

36-50  |  Home

11
Probable Pitchers
Kyle Finnegan
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Finnegan

#67 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jake Irvin
STARTING PITCHER

Jake Irvin

#27 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kyle Finnegan None-None 2.45 -- 1.0 1
Jake Irvin None-None 4.71 -- 6.0 4
None-None W-L None-None
2.45 Ldr ERA 4.71
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
69%
📊
NATIONALS
31%
TIGERS --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 30%
Under 0 70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Washington)
TigersDET (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

42.4%

Nationals Cover

57.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

DET By 1-2 runs

16.9%

DET By 3-4 runs

11.3%

WSH By 1-2 runs

19.4%

WSH By 3-4 runs

15.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.3
DETROIT
5.07
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
3
DETROIT
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nationals Win
31% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nationals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.8
C
Sim Nationals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.4
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 23, 2026 WSH @ DET 4 - 2
Sep 22, 2026 WSH @ DET 3 - 1
Sep 21, 2026 WSH @ DET 2 - 9
Jul 3, 2025 DET @ WSH 7 - 11
Jul 2, 2025 DET @ WSH 4 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.320
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .321
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.720
OPS
▲ .744
181
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +18.3% more
Washington: 3.9 vs Detroit: 3.3
Home Runs (Season) +16.0% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Detroit: 181.0
Runs per Game (Season) +13.7% more
Washington: 5.1 vs Detroit: 4.5
OPS (Season) +2.4%
Washington: 74.4% vs Detroit: 72.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 4.3 7
WSH Score 5.1 11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.5 0.0 / 3.0
Hits 9.9 / 11.9 15.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 2.7 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.2 / 9.2 7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 13.5 / 22.3 22.0 / 11.0
Walks 3.9 / 3.3 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
DET
WSH
DET
ML
57% 92-69
54% 86-73
54% 87-74
54% 87-73
ATS
58% 93-68
64% 101-58
57% 91-70
57% 91-69
TTL
50% 77-78-6
46% 69-81-9
42% 65-90-6
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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