CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
40-44 | Road
0
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
51-35 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Hunter Gaddis
#33 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Michael Busch
#29 | First Base| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Gaddis | None-None | 3.67 | -- | 2.0 | 2 |
| Michael Busch | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.67
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
2.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
2
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
38%
CUBS
62%
GUARDIANS
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CLE -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.0%
CLE By 3-4 runs
14.7%
CHC By 1-2 runs
17.7%
CHC By 3-4 runs
12.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
3.99
CLEVELAND
Chicago
3.6
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Guardians
Loss
38% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cubs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Guardians (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim
Cubs (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
CHC @ CLE
5 - 6
Apr 3, 2026
CHC @ CLE
1 - 4
Jul 3, 2025
CLE @ CHC
0 - 1
Jul 2, 2025
CLE @ CHC
4 - 5
Jul 1, 2025
CLE @ CHC
2 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.19
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.316
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.380
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.696
▲
OPS
.374
162
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+100.0% more
Cleveland: 162.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+88.1% more
Cleveland: 4.2
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Walks (L5)
+64.0% more
Cleveland: 5.2
vs
Chicago: 1.9
Errors (L5)
+49.5% more
Cleveland: 1.1
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
4.0
0
CHC Score
3.6
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 1.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.3 / 5.7
3.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.3
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
5.4 / 6.9
9.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
14.7 / 10.4
3.0 / 7.0
Walks
1.9 / 5.2
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
CLE
CHC
CLE
ML
58%
93-68
54%
87-74
51%
82-79
49%
80-82
ATS
61%
97-63-1
58%
93-68
47%
75-85-1
59%
95-67
TTL
52%
81-74-6
55%
88-71-2
46%
72-83-6
43%
69-90-2
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