ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
36-52 | Road
5
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
47-39 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Elvis Alvarado
#37 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kevin Kelly
#49 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Alvarado | None-None | 5.40 | -- | 1.1 | 1 |
| Kevin Kelly | None-None | 2.95 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.40
ERA
Ldr 2.95
--
WHIP
--
1.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
36%
RAYS
64%
ATHLETICS
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Athletics)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
ATH By 1-2 runs
19.1%
ATH By 3-4 runs
14.8%
TB By 1-2 runs
17.6%
TB By 3-4 runs
12.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletics
4.61
ATHLETICS
Tampa Bay
4.17
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Athletics
2
ATHLETICS
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Athletics
Loss
36% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Athletics (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim
Rays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.8
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
ATH @ TB
1 - 10
Sep 16, 2026
ATH @ TB
3 - 4
Sep 15, 2026
ATH @ TB
1 - 2
Aug 12, 2026
TB @ ATH
8 - 4
Aug 11, 2026
TB @ ATH
12 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics
ATH
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.719
OPS
▲
.728
194
▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+50.0% more
Athletics: 1.2
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.6
Walks (L5)
+47.5% more
Athletics: 4.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 2.5
Home Runs (Season)
+12.9% more
Athletics: 194.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 169.0
Home Runs (L5)
+45.1% more
Tampa Bay: 1.9
vs
Athletics: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATH Score
4.6
5
TB Score
4.2
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 1.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.8 / 7.0
10.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 1.3
3.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
10.5 / 7.6
17.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
15.6 / 12.8
21.0 / 20.0
Walks
2.5 / 4.7
3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
ATH
TB
ATH
ML
58%
95-68
59%
95-67
58%
95-68
54%
87-74
ATS
60%
97-66
52%
84-78
55%
90-73
50%
81-80
TTL
47%
73-81-9
54%
84-73-5
51%
78-75-10
42%
66-90-5
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Cloud Production Secrets: NBC Sports, MLB, NHL, and Warner Bros.…
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …