Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Phillies SD @ PHI

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

46-39  |  Road

1
FINAL
Wed, Jul 2 • 6:15 PM ET
Citizens Bank Park
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

50-36  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Adrian Morejon
STARTING PITCHER

Adrian Morejon

#50 | Relief Pitcher
@
Brandon Marsh
STARTING PITCHER

Brandon Marsh

#16 | Left Field
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Adrian Morejon None-None 1.89 -- 1.1 1
Brandon Marsh None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
1.89 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.1 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
46%
📊
PHILLIES
54%
PADRES --
PHILLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Philadelphia)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 PhilliesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

30.6%

Phillies Cover

69.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

SD By 1-2 runs

13.5%

SD By 3-4 runs

7.7%

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.6%

PHI By 3-4 runs

18.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.55
SAN DIEGO
5.58
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
3
SAN DIEGO
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Phillies Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Phillies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Phillies (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Phillies (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 4, 2026 SD @ PHI 4 - 6
Jun 3, 2026 SD @ PHI 2 - 3
Jun 2, 2026 SD @ PHI 2 - 3
May 27, 2026 PHI @ SD 3 - 0
May 26, 2026 PHI @ SD 4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Philadelphia PHI
2
Games Played
2
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.438
.925 ▲
OPS
.724
4 ▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +28.0% more
Philadelphia: 10.0 vs San Diego: 7.8
Walks (L5) +54.7% more
San Diego: 3.7 vs Philadelphia: 1.7
Runs per Game (Season) +41.7% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.5
OPS (Season) +20.1%
San Diego: 92.5% vs Philadelphia: 72.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 3.6 1
PHI Score 5.6 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.1 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 7.1 / 7.4 12.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.0 / 7.8 7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 11.1 / 11.7 18.0 / 6.0
Walks 1.7 / 3.7 9.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
PHI
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
SD
PHI
SD
ML
59% 97-67
51% 85-83
49% 80-84
51% 85-82
ATS
65% 107-57
54% 91-77
51% 83-81
55% 92-75
TTL
57% 88-67-9
51% 82-80-6
51% 78-76-9
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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