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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

54-32  |  Road

4
FINAL
Wed, Jul 2 • 6:45 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

35-50  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Tyler Holton
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Holton

#87 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jacob Young
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Young

#30 | Center Field
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler Holton None-None 4.12 -- 2.0 3
Jacob Young None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
4.12 ERA --
-- WHIP --
2.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
3 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
71%
📊
NATIONALS
29%
TIGERS --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Washington)
TigersDET (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

45.1%

Nationals Cover

54.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

DET By 1-2 runs

17.5%

DET By 3-4 runs

12.1%

WSH By 1-2 runs

19.1%

WSH By 3-4 runs

15.0%

AI Model Projected Score
4.24
DETROIT
4.73
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
3
DETROIT
6
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nationals Win
29% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nationals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
C
Sim Nationals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 23, 2026 WSH @ DET 4 - 2
Sep 22, 2026 WSH @ DET 3 - 1
Sep 21, 2026 WSH @ DET 2 - 9
Jul 3, 2025 DET @ WSH 7 - 11
Jul 2, 2025 DET @ WSH 4 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.320
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .321
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.720
OPS
▲ .744
181
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +120.0% more
Washington: 4.4 vs Detroit: 2.0
Errors (L5) +17.0% more
Washington: 0.3 vs Detroit: 0.2
Home Runs (Season) +16.0% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Detroit: 181.0
Runs per Game (Season) +13.7% more
Washington: 5.1 vs Detroit: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 4.2 4
WSH Score 4.7 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.2 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.4 / 10.3 9.0 / 15.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 2.0 0.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 6.8 / 9.8 11.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 15.7 / 19.0 9.0 / 29.0
Walks 4.4 / 2.0 3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
DET
WSH
DET
ML
57% 92-69
54% 86-73
54% 87-74
54% 87-73
ATS
58% 93-68
64% 101-58
57% 91-70
57% 91-69
TTL
50% 77-78-6
46% 69-81-9
42% 65-90-6
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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