Home / MLB Projections MLB / Guardians @ Cubs CLE @ CHC

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

40-43  |  Road

4
FINAL
Wed, Jul 2 • 8:05 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

50-35  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Hunter Gaddis
STARTING PITCHER

Hunter Gaddis

#33 | Relief Pitcher
@
Caleb Thielbar
STARTING PITCHER

Caleb Thielbar

#24 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Hunter Gaddis None-None 3.90 -- 0.1 --
Caleb Thielbar None-None 1.97 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.90 ERA Ldr 1.97
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
39%
📊
CUBS
61%
GUARDIANS --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 53%
Under 0 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Cleveland)
GuardiansCLE (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Guardians Cover

51.3%

Cubs Cover

48.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CLE -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

CLE By 1-2 runs

18.6%

CLE By 3-4 runs

13.9%

CHC By 1-2 runs

18.2%

CHC By 3-4 runs

13.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.81
CLEVELAND
3.68
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
3
CLEVELAND
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Guardians Loss
39% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Guardians (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.1
D
Sim Cubs (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.5
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 CHC @ CLE 5 - 6
Apr 3, 2026 CHC @ CLE 1 - 4
Jul 3, 2025 CLE @ CHC 0 - 1
Jul 2, 2025 CLE @ CHC 4 - 5
Jul 1, 2025 CLE @ CHC 2 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland CLE
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.19 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.239 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.316 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.380 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.696 ▲
OPS
.374
162 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +100.0% more
Cleveland: 162.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +88.1% more
Cleveland: 4.2 vs Chicago: 0.5
Errors (L5) +81.0% more
Cleveland: 1.6 vs Chicago: 0.3
Walks (L5) +52.6% more
Cleveland: 3.8 vs Chicago: 1.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 3.8 4
CHC Score 3.7 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 1.6 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.4 / 5.0 9.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 0.5 0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 6.2 / 6.8 4.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 16.0 / 7.6 12.0 / 16.0
Walks 1.8 / 3.8 2.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
CLE
CHC
CLE
ML
58% 93-68
54% 87-74
51% 82-79
49% 80-82
ATS
61% 97-63-1
58% 93-68
47% 75-85-1
59% 95-67
TTL
52% 81-74-6
55% 88-71-2
46% 72-83-6
43% 69-90-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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