BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
37-48 | Road
0
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
42-44 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Kittredge
#39 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Nathan Eovaldi
#17 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Kittredge | None-None | 4.50 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | None-None | 1.75 | -- | 5.0 | 5 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.50
ERA
Ldr 1.75
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
45%
RANGERS
55%
ORIOLES
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
BAL By 1-2 runs
16.5%
BAL By 3-4 runs
10.8%
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TEX By 3-4 runs
16.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
4.49
BALTIMORE
Texas
5.43
TEXAS
Simulated Score
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Texas
6
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rangers
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rangers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rangers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
C
Sim
Rangers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.9
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
BAL @ TEX
10 - 5
Aug 8, 2026
BAL @ TEX
1 - 5
Aug 7, 2026
BAL @ TEX
1 - 2
Apr 1, 2026
TEX @ BAL
3 - 8
Mar 31, 2026
TEX @ BAL
8 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Texas
TEX
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.242
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.396
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.711
OPS
▲
.713
199
▲
Home Runs
183
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+13.2% more
Texas: 9.8
vs
Baltimore: 8.6
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.8%
Texas: 24.2%
vs
Baltimore: 23.4%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.3%
Texas: 31.7%
vs
Baltimore: 31.4%
Walks (L5)
+38.7% more
Baltimore: 4.1
vs
Texas: 2.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
4.5
0
TEX Score
5.4
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.8 / 9.9
11.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.4
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.8 / 8.6
7.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
15.9 / 16.4
17.0 / 8.0
Walks
2.5 / 4.1
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
TEX
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
BAL
TEX
BAL
ML
53%
86-76
53%
83-73
57%
91-70
57%
90-69
ATS
57%
92-70
61%
95-60-1
61%
98-63
57%
90-68-1
TTL
53%
78-70-14
54%
81-70-5
55%
81-66-14
51%
78-75-6
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