ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
34-52 | Road
6
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
47-37 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
J.T. Ginn
#35 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Garrett Cleavinger
#60 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.T. Ginn | None-None | 4.82 | -- | 3.2 | 5 |
| Garrett Cleavinger | None-None | 2.56 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.82
ERA
Ldr 2.56
--
WHIP
--
3.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
5 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
34%
RAYS
66%
ATHLETICS
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
42%
Under 0
58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
ATH By 1-2 runs
14.9%
ATH By 3-4 runs
9.1%
TB By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TB By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletics
3.39
ATHLETICS
Tampa Bay
4.91
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Athletics
3
ATHLETICS
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Loss
66% Win Prob
C
Sim
Rays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.5
C
Sim
Rays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
ATH @ TB
1 - 10
Sep 16, 2026
ATH @ TB
3 - 4
Sep 15, 2026
ATH @ TB
1 - 2
Aug 12, 2026
TB @ ATH
8 - 4
Aug 11, 2026
TB @ ATH
12 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics
ATH
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.719
OPS
▲
.728
194
▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+69.2% more
Tampa Bay: 16.0
vs
Athletics: 9.5
Hits (L5)
+64.3% more
Tampa Bay: 9.7
vs
Athletics: 5.9
Home Runs (L5)
+59.0% more
Tampa Bay: 1.6
vs
Athletics: 1.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+5.3% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Athletics: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATH Score
3.4
6
TB Score
4.9
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 1.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.7 / 5.9
8.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 1.0
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 7.6
10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
16.0 / 9.5
11.0 / 16.0
Walks
2.6 / 5.2
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
ATH
TB
ATH
ML
58%
95-68
59%
95-67
58%
95-68
54%
87-74
ATS
60%
97-66
52%
84-78
55%
90-73
50%
81-80
TTL
47%
73-81-9
54%
84-73-5
51%
78-75-10
42%
66-90-5
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