BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
36-47 | Road
10
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
41-43 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Kittredge
#39 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Alejandro Osuna
#19 | Left Field| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Kittredge | None-None | 4.76 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Alejandro Osuna | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.76
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
1
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
45%
RANGERS
55%
ORIOLES
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
44%
Under 0
56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
BAL By 1-2 runs
18.9%
BAL By 3-4 runs
14.5%
TEX By 1-2 runs
17.9%
TEX By 3-4 runs
12.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
4.7
BALTIMORE
Texas
4.39
TEXAS
Simulated Score
Baltimore
3
BALTIMORE
Texas
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Orioles
Win
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rangers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Orioles (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
D
Sim
Rangers (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
BAL @ TEX
10 - 5
Aug 8, 2026
BAL @ TEX
1 - 5
Aug 7, 2026
BAL @ TEX
1 - 2
Apr 1, 2026
TEX @ BAL
3 - 8
Mar 31, 2026
TEX @ BAL
8 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Texas
TEX
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.242
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.396
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.711
OPS
▲
.713
199
▲
Home Runs
183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+30.1% more
Baltimore: 1.3
vs
Texas: 0.9
Total Bases (L5)
+26.4% more
Baltimore: 16.3
vs
Texas: 12.0
Hits (L5)
+15.5% more
Baltimore: 9.4
vs
Texas: 8.0
Errors (L5)
+15.0% more
Baltimore: 0.6
vs
Texas: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
4.7
10
TEX Score
4.4
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.0 / 9.4
7.0 / 15.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.3
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.2 / 7.2
12.0 / 14.0
Total Bases
12.0 / 16.3
13.0 / 26.0
Walks
3.4 / 3.0
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
TEX
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
BAL
TEX
BAL
ML
53%
86-76
53%
83-73
57%
91-70
57%
90-69
ATS
57%
92-70
61%
95-60-1
61%
98-63
57%
90-68-1
TTL
53%
78-70-14
54%
81-70-5
55%
81-66-14
51%
78-75-6
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