TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
47-36 | Road
1
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
35-47 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kevin Kelly
#49 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Coby Mayo
#16 | Third Base| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kelly | None-None | 3.12 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Coby Mayo | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.12
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
1
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
64%
ORIOLES
36%
RAYS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
TB By 1-2 runs
17.5%
TB By 3-4 runs
12.2%
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.1%
BAL By 3-4 runs
14.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
6.05
TAMPA BAY
Baltimore
6.53
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Win
36% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
C
Sim
Orioles (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 12.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
TB @ BAL
3 - 1
Aug 22, 2026
TB @ BAL
2 - 3
Aug 21, 2026
TB @ BAL
3 - 5
Aug 17, 2026
BAL @ TB
6 - 7
Aug 16, 2026
BAL @ TB
10 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.728
▲
OPS
.711
169
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+17.8% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 169.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+35.6% more
Tampa Bay: 9.0
vs
Baltimore: 5.8
Hits (L5)
+24.4% more
Tampa Bay: 12.1
vs
Baltimore: 9.1
Total Bases (L5)
+10.7% more
Tampa Bay: 20.1
vs
Baltimore: 17.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
6.1
1
BAL Score
6.5
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.1 / 12.1
10.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
2.0 / 1.9
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
5.8 / 9.0
10.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
17.9 / 20.1
13.0 / 8.0
Walks
3.5 / 3.4
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
TB
BAL
TB
ML
53%
83-73
58%
95-68
57%
90-69
58%
95-68
ATS
61%
95-60-1
60%
97-66
57%
90-68-1
55%
90-73
TTL
54%
81-70-5
47%
73-81-9
51%
78-75-6
51%
78-75-10
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